Latest Reading
0.55%
Direct term-spread inversion signal from the Treasury curve.
Recession / Term Structure
Term structure risk is where the dashboard starts.
These spreads are the fastest read on whether policy, growth expectations, and recession anxiety are pushing the curve into late-cycle territory.
recession
US 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread
Change Windows
1m-0.09
3m-0.12
1y+0.26
Freshness
FRED:T10Y2YokMar 16, 2026
US 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread history
2016-03-18 to 2026-03-16
Thresholds
normalCurve is comfortably upward sloping.0 pts
flatteningCurve is flattening but still positive.5 pts
late_cycleCurve is near flat and signaling caution.10 pts
invertedInversion is a classic recession-risk warning signal.18 pts
Methodology
Uses the FRED direct 10Y minus 2Y spread series.
yield_10y_minus_2y = T10Y2Y
Inversion is a warning signal, not a recession guarantee.
Term premium shifts can affect the curve independently of growth expectations.
recession
US 10Y minus 3M Treasury Spread
Latest Reading
0.51%
Broader term-spread recession signal using the 3-month bill.
Change Windows
1m+0.15
3m0.00
1y+0.53
Freshness
FRED:T10Y3MokMar 16, 2026
US 10Y minus 3M Treasury Spread history
2016-03-18 to 2026-03-16
Thresholds
normalCurve is comfortably positive.0 pts
flatteningCurve is flattening.5 pts
late_cycleCurve is near flat and warrants caution.10 pts
invertedInversion is the strongest recession warning band in this family.20 pts
Methodology
Uses the FRED direct 10Y minus 3M spread series.
yield_10y_minus_3m = T10Y3M
The curve can invert well before recession timing becomes clear.
Policy distortions and flight-to-safety flows can affect the spread.