Step 1
Start here
Use this page to understand what the dashboard is trying to catch and how the six families fit together.
Start Here
This dashboard looks for the chain of stress that usually shows up before bubbles and recessions break.
Crises like 2008 rarely begin with one dramatic headline. They usually build through a pattern: easy money, rising asset prices, more leverage, hidden funding fragility, and then a sudden loss of trust.
This dashboard is meant to catch that pattern early. It does not try to predict the exact day a market will peak. It helps you see when the backdrop is becoming more fragile, even if prices still look strong.
The six macro families below translate that idea into something readable: recession pressure, expensive valuations, fading liquidity, rising leverage, worsening credit, and narrow market leadership.
Natural Learning Flow
Start here, then choose the depth you needDocumentation ladderThis product now separates orientation, market foundations, dashboard-reading, and glossary lookup so beginners do not have to learn everything on one page.
Step 2
Learn the terms
If words like yield curve, credit spread, or Shiller CAPE still feel unfamiliar, open the foundations page next.
Step 3
Read the product
Once the vocabulary is clear, learn how to read the overview, family pages, charts, and freshness together.
Step 4
Look up any term fast
Use the glossary as quick reference whenever a concept slows you down in the live product.
Why This Exists
What this dashboard is trying to catchSystemic fragilityA fragile system can still look healthy on the surface. The point is to spot hidden stress before it becomes obvious everywhere.
Cheap money opens the door
Low rates and easy funding can support real growth, but they also make speculation easier to finance.
Asset prices outrun fundamentals
Stories about a new era can be true and still become over-priced. That is when valuation risk starts building.
Leverage hides in the system
Borrowed money, private credit, and short-term funding make markets stronger on the way up and more fragile on the way down.
Trust breaks quickly
Once lenders pull back and spreads widen, the problem can jump from one asset class to the whole financial system.
How To Use It
Read the product in three passesThree-pass workflowStart with the overview, find the family creating pressure, then read the signals together instead of reacting to one metric in isolation.
Step 1
Start with the overview
Check the composite score, the freshness banner, and the key drivers. That tells you whether the system looks calm, watchful, or stretched.
Step 2
Find the family behind the pressure
Move from the overview into the family that is driving risk. Each family answers a different macro question.
Step 3
Read the signals together
One warning sign alone is rarely enough. The real message comes from how valuations, liquidity, leverage, credit, breadth, and the curve line up together.
Families At A Glance
Six macro questions, one by oneFamily summaryThese cards are intentionally short. They tell you what each family is trying to answer and where to go next if you want more depth.
Yield curve
Is the bond market starting to expect slower growth ahead?
This family reads Treasury spreads as an early warning signal for tighter credit and weaker growth expectations.
If long rates are no longer comfortably above short rates, the macro backdrop is losing cushion.
Valuations
How much future optimism is already priced in?
This family uses the S&P 500 Shiller CAPE to show whether investors are paying unusually high prices relative to long-run earnings.
High valuations do not pick the day a market turns, but they do leave less room for disappointment.
Liquidity
Does the system still have enough fuel to support risk taking?
Money growth and central-bank balance-sheet direction help show whether the market still has abundant support or is losing it.
If liquidity is fading, fragile parts of the market lose one of their main supports.
Leverage
How much borrowed money is involved in the rally?
This family watches margin debt and related measures to see whether speculation is being financed aggressively.
More leverage can make prices rise faster on the way up and fall harder once sellers are forced.
Credit
Are lenders still comfortable taking risk?
High-yield spreads show how much extra compensation investors demand to lend to risky borrowers.
When spreads widen, stress is starting to move from headlines into financing conditions.
Breadth
Is the rally broad, or is it leaning on only a few leaders?
This family looks at equal-weight versus cap-weight leadership and at top-10 concentration to show whether participation is healthy.
If only a handful of winners are carrying the index, the market becomes easier to crack.
Read The System
One warning light can matter. Several agreeing is stronger.Signal agreementThe message becomes clearer when multiple families deteriorate together instead of sending unrelated signals.
Inverted curve
The bond market is leaning toward slower growth and tighter credit ahead.
High valuations
Investors are paying for a lot of future optimism, so the market has less room for disappointment.
Liquidity tightening
There is less fuel in the system to keep supporting asset prices.
High leverage
Borrowed money can turn a pullback into forced selling.
Wider spreads
Lenders are becoming less comfortable with risk, which often means stress is spreading.
Narrow breadth
A few leaders are doing most of the work, which makes the rally easier to crack.
Supplemental View
What the AI watchlist is forAI watchlistThe AI watchlist is a supplemental market view. It helps you monitor concentration and leadership inside a popular theme, but it is not one of the six macro warning families that drive the composite score.
The AI watchlist is a supplemental market view. It helps you monitor concentration and leadership inside a popular theme, but it is not one of the six macro warning families that drive the composite score.
Verify It Yourself
Free sources behind the storySource trailThese links let you cross-check the public references behind the dashboard's market and macro explanations.
FRED
Use FRED for the yield curve, money supply, balance-sheet series, unemployment, GDP, and high-yield spread series used throughout the dashboard.
Open sourceFINRA
FINRA publishes the margin-debt statistics that help anchor the leverage family.
Open sourceMultpl
Multpl is a clean public reference for the S&P 500 CAPE ratio and other long-run valuation context.
Open sourceIndicator source notes
The methodology section and family pages keep each indicator tied back to explicit source notes, caveats, and threshold rules.
Open reference