10Y-2Y Spread
US 10Y minus 2Y Treasury Spread
Direct term-spread inversion signal from the Treasury curve.
Methodology
Every indicator keeps its formula, thresholds, and caveats out in the open.
This page is the compact directory view. The deep-dive pages carry the same information in context with the charts.
recession
Recession / Term Structure
10Y-3M Spread
US 10Y minus 3M Treasury Spread
Broader term-spread recession signal using the 3-month bill.
liquidity
Liquidity
M2 YoY
M2 Money Stock YoY
Year-over-year growth in the M2 money stock.
WALCL YoY
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet YoY
Year-over-year growth in total Federal Reserve assets.
Liquidity Composite
Liquidity Composite v1
Average z-score of M2 YoY and WALCL YoY, used as an explanatory summary.
valuation
Valuation
CAPE
Shiller CAPE
Cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio sourced from a curated local series.
leverage
Leverage / Speculation
Margin Debt
FINRA Margin Debt
Latest level of FINRA customer margin debt.
Margin Debt YoY
Margin Debt YoY
Year-over-year change in FINRA margin debt.
Margin Debt / GDP
Margin Debt to GDP
Margin debt scaled by nominal GDP, exposed as chart-only until thresholds are calibrated.
credit
Credit Stress
HY Spread
High Yield Spread
High-yield spread level as a credit stress barometer.
HY Spread 3M Delta
High Yield Spread 3M Change
Three-month change in the high-yield spread.
breadth
Breadth / Concentration
Equal vs Cap 6M
Equal-Weight vs Cap-Weight Relative 6M
Six-month relative performance of equal-weight versus cap-weight equity proxies.
Top-10 Concentration
Top-10 Concentration Proxy
Curated proxy for the share of index weight represented by the top 10 names.