Leverage / Speculation

Leverage matters most when it is building quietly.

This page separates the level of margin debt from its growth rate and GDP context so the picture stays explainable.

leverage

FINRA Margin Debt

latest

Latest Reading

$1,279,042m

Latest level of FINRA customer margin debt.

Change Windows

1m+53445.00
3m+95388.00
1y+341789.00

Freshness

FINRA:margin_debt_debit_balancesstaleJan 31, 2025

FINRA Margin Debt history

2025-01-31 to 2026-01-31

Thresholds

latestLevel series displayed for context.0 pts

Methodology

Surfaces the latest FINRA margin debt level for context.

margin_debt_latest = FINRA margin debt level

Level data is best read alongside growth rates and GDP scaling.

This context metric does not directly contribute risk points in v1.

leverage

Margin Debt YoY

speculative

Latest Reading

36.47%

Year-over-year change in FINRA margin debt.

Change Windows

1mUnavailable
3mUnavailable
1yUnavailable

Freshness

FINRA:margin_debt_debit_balancesstaleJan 31, 2025

Margin Debt YoY history

Not enough historical data to render a chart yet.

Thresholds

deleveragingMargin debt is shrinking sharply.2 pts
stableMargin debt is broadly stable.5 pts
buildingMargin debt is building quickly.10 pts
speculativeMargin debt growth is speculative.15 pts

Methodology

Computes year-over-year change in the FINRA margin debt series.

((margin_debt_t / margin_debt_t_minus_12m) - 1) * 100

The series is monthly and can be revised by the source.

Deleveraging can appear after risk has already been unwound.

leverage

Margin Debt to GDP

chart_only

Latest Reading

4.07%

Margin debt scaled by nominal GDP, exposed as chart-only until thresholds are calibrated.

Change Windows

1m+0.17
3m+0.30
1y+0.95

Freshness

FINRA:margin_debt_debit_balancesstaleJan 31, 2025
FRED:GDPstaleOct 1, 2025

Margin Debt to GDP history

2025-01-31 to 2026-01-31

Thresholds

chart_onlyDisplayed for context only.0 pts

Methodology

Divides FINRA margin debt by the latest nominal GDP reading available at that date.

(margin_debt_millions / (gdp_billions * 1000)) * 100

Thresholds are intentionally not calibrated yet, so this metric is excluded from scoring.

Quarterly GDP is carried forward to match monthly margin debt dates.